Jobs report warning signs

Overview

This episode delves into the latest jobs report, highlighting troubling trends such as rising unemployment rates, particularly among Black workers, and the growing prevalence of long-term unemployment. It also explores the economic ripple effects of tariffs, the decline in industrial warehouse demand, and the challenges facing the U.S. commercial shipping industry, including a shortage of trained mariners.

Notable Quotes

- This job market is going from frozen to cracking, and a lot of industries are now doing layoffs. — Heather Long, on the deteriorating employment landscape.

- Being unemployed is almost busier than being employed... it feels very much like a lottery at this point. — Archit, a tech worker navigating the competitive job market.

- The job opportunities for a cadet graduating from a maritime academy have not been seen since the end of the Vietnam War. — Jerry Achenbach, on the demand for maritime workers.

📉 The Jobs Report: Warning Signs in the Labor Market

- Heather Long noted significant layoffs in sectors like mining, construction, manufacturing, and the federal government, with health care being the only major area of job growth.

- Revisions to past data revealed the first monthly net job loss since December 2020, signaling deeper economic issues.

- Anna Swanson linked the slowdown to tariffs, immigration policies, and government downsizing, which have increased costs and reduced hiring.

- Black unemployment rose sharply, with over 340,000 more Black workers out of jobs compared to last year. Experts warn this could foreshadow broader unemployment increases.

📊 Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy

- The bleak jobs report has solidified expectations for a September interest rate cut, with potential for further cuts in October and December, according to Heather Long.

- A Wall Street Journal op-ed criticized the Fed’s gain-of-function monetary policy, arguing its new tools have not improved economic outcomes. Anna Swanson highlighted the irony of these criticisms given the Trump administration's frequent challenges to Fed independence.

📦 Decline in Warehouse Demand

- Leasing demand for industrial space fell by 11.3 million square feet in Q2 2025, marking the first quarterly decline in 15 years.

- Tariff uncertainty and a slowdown in housing construction, particularly in the Sunbelt, have contributed to the slump.

- Warehouse employment has dropped by 27,000 jobs year-over-year, with experts suggesting this could be a leading indicator of broader economic softening.

⚓ Reviving the U.S. Commercial Shipping Industry

- The Trump administration is investing in expanding the U.S. Merchant Marine fleet, but a shortage of certified mariners poses a significant challenge.

- Maritime academies, like the Great Lakes Maritime Academy, are struggling to scale up training programs due to limited resources.

- The industry faces a dual shortage of mariners and shipyard workers, which could hinder efforts to compete globally.

🎯 Personal Stories from the Labor Market

- Archit, a laid-off tech worker, shared the challenges of job hunting in a saturated market, including applying to companies receiving tens of thousands of applications.

- Weston LaBar, a logistics executive, described the instability in the warehousing sector, where fluctuating demand makes it difficult to retain workers.

- Maritime cadets, like Bryce Wise Brown, are optimistic about career prospects, with starting salaries in the Merchant Marine reaching $100,000 annually.