The 2025 consumer sentiment rollercoaster

The 2025 consumer sentiment rollercoaster

December 19, 2025 25 min
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🤖 AI Summary

Overview

This episode explores the economic challenges and consumer sentiment shifts of 2025, highlighting labor market concerns, inflation, and spending trends. It also delves into Kansas City's housing market preparations for the 2026 World Cup and an innovative approach to teaching macroeconomics using AI.

Notable Quotes

- It's almost like the emperor has no clothes. The data walked out in undergarments, and we're all trying to extrapolate if they're tuxedos or ball gowns. - Heather Long, on interpreting economic data.

- I'm almost ready to call this a hiring recession. - Heather Long, on the widespread job losses across industries.

- How do we help students develop both disciplinary expertise and AI skills that complement their thinking? - Scott Simkins, on integrating AI into education.

📉 Economic Data and Fed Policy

- Heather Long described the economic data as ambiguous, with inflation slightly improving but the labor market showing signs of weakness.

- Amara Mokwe noted that the Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts align with their goal of cushioning the labor market, though policymakers remain divided on future actions.

- Competing priorities—tackling inflation versus supporting the labor market—continue to challenge the Fed's decision-making.

🛑 Labor Market Concerns

- The labor market is experiencing what Heather Long termed a hiring recession, with multiple industries, including manufacturing and financial services, reporting layoffs.

- Declining immigration and an aging population are exacerbating labor shortages, further complicating hiring trends.

- Amara Mokwe expressed concern about the difficulty job seekers face, despite the absence of widespread layoffs.

🛒 Consumer Sentiment and Spending Trends

- Consumer sentiment in 2025 has been volatile, influenced by factors like tariffs and economic uncertainty.

- Spending patterns reveal a Costco Christmas, with middle-class consumers prioritizing wholesale and discount retailers over dining and travel.

- Economists noted a stronger link between consumer sentiment and spending behavior this year, driven by slowing wage growth and labor market concerns.

🏠 Kansas City and the 2026 World Cup

- Kansas City is preparing for an influx of visitors, with homeowners turning to short-term rentals like Airbnb to meet demand.

- Local initiatives, such as reduced registration fees for short-term rentals, aim to boost housing availability for the event.

- Concerns persist about potential renter displacement as landlords prioritize short-term profits during the World Cup.

🎵 AI in Macroeconomics Education

- Scott Simkins introduced an innovative assignment where students used AI to write songs about monetary policy, helping them apply theoretical models creatively.

- The exercise aimed to enhance students' understanding of macroeconomic concepts while teaching them to use AI as a complementary tool.

- Simkins emphasized the importance of developing both technical expertise and AI skills to prepare students for future challenges.

AI-generated content may not be accurate or complete and should not be relied upon as a sole source of truth.

📋 Episode Description

Consumer sentiment really ran the gamut this year. But right now, Americans are feeling almost as bad about the economy as they were when inflation was at its peak summer of 2022. In this episode, we chronicle 2025’s consumer vibes rollercoaster. Plus: Kansas City’s housing market preps for the 2026 World Cup, a college professor offers an AI-driven macroeconomic theory course, and we go over the week’s headlines.


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