All-In's 2026 Predictions

Overview

This episode dives into predictions for 2026, covering political shifts, business trends, asset performance, and cultural phenomena. The hosts discuss California's wealth tax, the rise of citizen journalism, the future of AI, and the potential for major geopolitical and economic changes.

Notable Quotes

- Audit everything. We need to normalize independent audits across the board. - David Sacks, on the need for transparency in government spending.

- The trends on electrification and energy storage are just unstoppable. - Chamath Palihapitiya, on the decline of hydrocarbons.

- If you're a young person who uses AI tools, you're going to find a job. If you're not motivated and don't use AI tools, you're going to have a hard time. - Jason Calacanis, on the impact of AI on the job market.

🌎 California Wealth Tax and Exodus

- The proposed wealth tax in California is driving high-net-worth individuals and businesses out of the state.

- David Sacks shared his personal experience of relocating to Texas, citing a more business-friendly environment and a warm welcome from local politicians.

- David Friedberg highlighted the potential long-term economic consequences of the exodus, estimating that half a trillion dollars in net worth has already left California.

📈 Biggest Political and Economic Winners and Losers

- David Sacks predicted the Trump Boom as the biggest political winner, citing strong economic indicators like GDP growth and low inflation.

- Chamath Palihapitiya and David Friedberg pointed to the Democratic Socialists of America and anti-waste advocates as potential political winners.

- The tech industry was identified as a potential political and economic loser due to increasing scrutiny from both sides of the political spectrum.

💼 Business Trends and Predictions

- Chamath Palihapitiya predicted a decline in the software industrial complex, with maintenance and migration costs shrinking due to advancements in AI.

- David Sacks forecasted a resurgence in IPOs, with potential filings from companies like SpaceX, Stripe, and Anthropic.

- Jason Calacanis highlighted Amazon's increasing reliance on robotics as a key driver for its growth in 2026.

🛠️ Most Anticipated Trends and Contrarian Beliefs

- David Sacks argued that AI will increase demand for knowledge workers, citing Jevons Paradox, where reduced costs lead to increased demand.

- Chamath Palihapitiya predicted a geopolitical shift with Iran potentially becoming a democratic state, which could destabilize the Middle East in unexpected ways.

- Auditing government spending was highlighted as a critical trend, with calls for transparency across all levels of government.

🎥 Most Anticipated Media

- David Sacks and Jason Calacanis expressed excitement for Christopher Nolan's upcoming film, The Odyssey.

- David Friedberg and Chamath Palihapitiya emphasized the rise of citizen journalism and investigative reporting as a transformative media trend.

- The hosts noted the monetization opportunities for independent creators through platforms like YouTube, X, and Substack.