Jacob Peters, Logan Kilpatrick, Roy Lee, Erik Torenberg, Jack Whitaker, Trump Laying Groundwork to Blame Powell for Downturn, Boeing to Sell Some of Its Navigation Business in $10.55B Deal, History of Thoma Bravo, Oil Companies Have Bold Plans to Fix Their Water Problem

Overview

This episode dives into a wide range of topics, including the latest developments in AI, the history and strategy of private equity giant Thoma Bravo, the evolving dynamics of the stock market, and bold plans by oil companies to address environmental challenges. It also features interviews with prominent figures in tech, venture capital, and AI, offering insights into their strategies and visions.

Notable Quotes

- If we get lower rates, we're going to the moon. This is great. - John Coogan, on Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve.

- I think the end state is a chip inside your brain that lets you use AGI to think. - Roy Lee, on his vision for AI's future.

- The goal is to bring the cost of purifying a barrel down to 75¢, which is slightly more than what it costs to flush it down the well. - John Coogan, on Exxon Mobil's ambitious water treatment plans.

🛢️ Oil Companies and Water Challenges

- Fracking operations in the Permian Basin produce four barrels of water for every barrel of crude oil, leading to massive amounts of wastewater.

- Current solutions involve pumping wastewater back into the ground, which has caused earthquakes and environmental concerns.

- Exxon Mobil is testing evaporators and desalination facilities to address the issue, aiming to purify water at a cost of 75¢ per barrel.

- Despite ambitious plans, the scale of wastewater (5.5 billion barrels annually) dwarfs current treatment capabilities, highlighting the enormity of the challenge.

📈 Stock Market Dynamics and Trump's Fed Strategy

- Trump is laying the groundwork to blame Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for any economic downturn, accusing him of being too late on rate cuts.

- The stock market has surged despite political tensions, with Tesla stock up 3% amid rumors of its decline.

- The episode explores the politicization of the Federal Reserve and its implications for market stability.

- John Coogan humorously suggests the government should buy billboards encouraging people to go long on the market.

💼 The History and Strategy of Thoma Bravo

- Thoma Bravo's origins trace back to the 1980s, pioneering the buy and build strategy in private equity.

- The firm focuses on acquiring profitable software companies and optimizing operations, avoiding risky startups.

- Notable deals include the $10.55 billion acquisition of Boeing's navigation business and the $1.3 billion buyout of Blue Coat Systems, later sold for $4.5 billion.

- Orlando Bravo, dubbed The King of SaaS, has steered the firm toward tech buyouts, leveraging software's powerful economics.

🤖 AI Innovations and Founders' Perspectives

- Roy Lee, founder of Cluely, envisions AI as a personal assistant embedded in users' lives, eventually evolving into brain-embedded chips.

- Logan Kilpatrick from Google discusses the rapid evolution of AI models, emphasizing multimodal capabilities and real-time applications.

- Jack Whitaker highlights the potential of reinforcement learning and agentic properties in AI, predicting significant advancements in GPT-5.

- Stanford's startup culture is shifting, with fewer students committing to startups and more opting for roles at established companies.

🐂 The High-Stakes World of Prize Bulls

- With U.S. cattle supply at a 75-year low, auctions for prize bulls have become high-stakes events.

- Bulls are evaluated on physical traits, lineage, and even sass and swagger, with prices reaching $60,000 or more.

- The episode humorously compares the dynamics of bull auctions to venture capital term sheets, emphasizing the competitive nature of both worlds.