Trump 2.0: The President’s Affordability Problem

Overview

This episode examines the economic challenges facing President Trump in his second term, focusing on voter dissatisfaction with affordability and the broader implications for political alignment. Nate Cohn, chief political analyst at The New York Times, discusses polling data that reveals a significant shift in voter sentiment, particularly among key demographic groups that supported Trump in 2024.

Notable Quotes

- I felt confident that he was going to come and help us, but now that we're just one year into it, I feel bamboozled. – A voter, on their disillusionment with Trump's economic promises.

- Only 24% of 18 to 29-year-olds said they thought they could afford the life they should be able to afford, compared to 63% of people over age 65. – Nate Cohn, highlighting the generational divide in economic anxiety.

- As long as these deep simmering problems continue to exist in American society, we're going to keep having voters looking for something very different from what they've had before. – Nate Cohn, on the cyclical nature of political dissatisfaction.

📉 Economic Promises and Disillusionment

- Trump entered office in 2024 with high approval ratings and a broad coalition, including younger, non-white, and lower-income voters, who were optimistic about his economic promises.

- One year into his term, his approval rating has dropped to 40%, with many voters feeling that affordability has worsened under his leadership.

- Key grievances include high housing costs, healthcare expenses, and stagnant wages, with 65% of respondents believing a middle-class life is now out of reach for most Americans.

🏠 Affordability Crisis

- Polling reveals that voters are most concerned about affording big-ticket middle-class essentials like housing, education, and healthcare, rather than daily expenses like food or utilities.

- Younger generations are disproportionately affected, with many delaying milestones like starting families or buying homes due to financial constraints.

- Policies like tariffs and Medicaid cuts are seen as exacerbating these issues, with 64% disapproving of Trump's handling of the cost of living.

📊 Shifting Political Alignments

- The demographic shifts that helped Trump win in 2024—gains among young, non-white, and lower-income voters—have largely reversed.

- Many of these voters now feel disillusioned with both major parties, creating a pool of up for grabs voters who may abstain from future elections or be swayed by new political messages.

- Democrats have an opportunity to capitalize on this dissatisfaction but face their own credibility challenges on economic issues.

🛠️ Trump’s Policy Responses

- Trump has proposed measures like capping credit card interest rates and banning private equity from buying single-family homes to address affordability concerns.

- However, these proposals are viewed as gimmicky and unlikely to solve systemic issues, leaving voters skeptical of their impact.

- The lack of substantial progress on affordability continues to weigh down his approval ratings, despite some voters acknowledging gradual economic improvements.

🌀 Broader Implications for U.S. Politics

- The persistent affordability crisis reflects deeper systemic issues that neither party has effectively addressed, fueling voter dissatisfaction and demand for change.

- This dissatisfaction has historically opened the door for non-traditional candidates, as seen with Trump in 2016 and Bernie Sanders on the left.

- As long as these economic pressures persist, the cycle of political disillusionment and demand for outsider solutions is likely to continue.