The Biggest Global Risks for 2026 | TED Explains the World with Ian Bremmer

Overview

Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, discusses the top global risks for 2026, focusing on the geopolitical implications of the U.S.'s military extraction of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, the emergence of the Donroe Doctrine, and the broader shifts in global power dynamics. The conversation also explores the political revolution in the U.S., Europe's precarious position, and escalating tensions involving Russia and NATO.

Notable Quotes

- This is not regime change. This is regime roulette. – Ian Bremmer, on the U.S.'s lack of a governance plan for Venezuela post-Maduro.

- The United States is not the principal adversary of Russia or China; it’s the political opposition within its own borders. – Ian Bremmer, on the internal drivers of U.S. political instability.

- The Europeans bet on an indispensable America. That was a bad bet. – Ian Bremmer, on Europe's reliance on U.S. leadership.

🌎 The U.S. Military Operation in Venezuela

- The U.S. executed a highly strategic and successful military operation to extract Nicolás Maduro, showcasing its military dominance.

- The operation was driven by Trump's personal vendetta against Maduro, with little regard for long-term governance in Venezuela.

- The lack of a post-extraction plan has left Venezuela in a state of regime roulette, with uncertainty about the new leadership's alignment with U.S. interests.

- The operation shocked global powers like China, which had diplomatic ties with Maduro, highlighting the unpredictability of U.S. actions under Trump.

🇺🇸 The Donroe Doctrine and U.S. Foreign Policy

- The Donroe Doctrine represents Trump's America First approach in the Western Hemisphere, asserting U.S. dominance over regional security and strategic interests.

- This doctrine could lead to further interventions in countries like Nicaragua, Cuba, and even Greenland, using military and economic pressure.

- Trump's pivot from economic tools like tariffs to military dominance reflects the U.S.'s waning economic leverage and its continued military supremacy.

🇺🇸 U.S. Political Revolution and Internal Risks

- The U.S. is undergoing a political revolution, with Trump as both a symptom and an accelerant of systemic dysfunction.

- Actions undermining political norms and checks and balances—such as agency shutdowns and legal sanctions—are eroding democratic institutions.

- Resistance exists in the judiciary, military, and federal systems, but the trajectory toward a constitutional crisis remains likely.

- This internal instability is the top global risk for 2026, with implications for the U.S.'s global leadership and domestic governance.

🇪🇺 Europe’s Struggles and Fragmentation

- Europe faces immense internal pressures, with countries like the UK, France, and Germany struggling to address economic stagnation and political fragmentation.

- The EU's reliance on U.S. leadership has left it vulnerable, as the U.S. under Trump seeks to weaken the bloc by supporting Euroskeptic movements.

- Europe's inability to unify on defense, technology, and economic growth risks its global influence and leaves it susceptible to external powers like Russia and China.

🇷🇺 Russia’s Second Front and NATO Tensions

- Russia is escalating asymmetric attacks on NATO frontline states, including cyberattacks, sabotage, and territorial incursions.

- NATO's limited response increases the risk of accidental conflict, with potential spillover from the Ukraine war into neighboring states.

- Russia aims to exploit divisions within Europe to reduce support for Ukraine and weaken NATO's cohesion.