Why manufacturing employment continues to fall

Overview

This episode explores the persistent decline in U.S. manufacturing employment, driven by factors like a weak housing market and unpredictable tariff policies. It also examines the diminishing role of resumes in hiring, the historical and current economics of food costs, and the impact of a sparse snow season on Colorado's weather-dependent businesses.

Notable Quotes

- We lost over 25% of our manufacturing during that recession. – Jason Miller, on the lasting impact of the 2008-2009 financial crisis on U.S. manufacturing.

- It's not just an interview process now. It might be anywhere from a couple of days to a couple of weeks that they want to see if you can really do the work. – Amanda Hoover, on the rise of paid work trials replacing traditional resumes.

- American farm productivity has just exploded... One farmer is feeding nearly 170 people today. – Brian Walsh, on the economic forces behind declining food costs as a share of income.

🛠️ Decline in Manufacturing Employment

- Manufacturing jobs have been steadily declining since 2023, with over 90,000 jobs lost in 2025 alone.

- Jason Miller from Michigan State University attributes this to:

- A weak single-family housing market, which reduces demand for industries like sawmills and furniture manufacturing.

- Tariffs that increase input costs and create uncertainty, making it difficult for manufacturers to plan and hire.

- Susan Spence of the Institute for Supply Management highlights that manufacturers are hesitant to hire due to inconsistent customer orders and unpredictable tariff policies.

📄 The Changing Role of Resumes in Hiring

- Resumes are becoming less relevant, especially in tech and other industries, as recruiters increasingly rely on LinkedIn and professional networks to source candidates.

- AI-generated resumes and cover letters have overwhelmed recruiters, leading to alternative hiring methods like:

- Direct skill assessments.

- Paid work trials lasting days or weeks to evaluate candidates' abilities.

- While these methods aim to reduce bias and improve hiring, Amanda Hoover notes they may disadvantage those unfamiliar with evolving job market trends.

🍎 Food Costs and Economic Progress

- Americans now spend just 10.4% of their disposable income on food, down from 42.5% in 1901, thanks to advancements in farming productivity and economic growth.

- Brian Walsh explains that while food prices have risen 24% since 2020, wages have also increased, making food more affordable relative to income.

- However, lower-income families and poorer nations still spend a significant portion of their income on food, highlighting disparities.

❄️ Sparse Snowfall and Economic Ripples in Colorado

- A lack of snow in Colorado has significantly impacted weather-dependent businesses:

- Car washes, like Matt Fisher’s Green Car Wash, have seen a 10% revenue drop due to fewer dirty cars.

- Snow removal services, such as Bear Creek Tree Service, report a 70% decline in business, forcing operational cutbacks.

- Summer rafting companies anticipate shorter seasons due to reduced snowmelt, potentially losing over 50% of peak-season revenue.

- Broader economic effects include reduced tourism and lower revenue for mountain town businesses like restaurants and attractions.

📈 Economic Data Highlights

- Oil prices hit their highest levels since July 2024, with U.S. crude surpassing $80 per barrel.

- Kroger exceeded earnings expectations, leveraging AI to enhance customer experience and productivity, while competitors like Walmart and Costco saw declines.