Apple Tax is Dead, OpenAI Ends Vesting Cliff, Anthropic’s Massive TPU Order | Diet TBPN

Overview

This episode dives into the recent developments in the Apple tax saga, OpenAI's changes to employee equity vesting policies, and Anthropic's massive TPU order. The hosts explore the implications of these events on the tech industry, consumer behavior, and corporate strategies.

Notable Quotes

- Tim Sweeney says the Apple tax is dead in the United States. - John Coogan, on the Ninth Circuit ruling against Apple's App Store fees.

- The growth story of Apple has been someone else innovates, someone else creates an app, and we'll take 30%. The innovation doesn’t need to happen here. - John Coogan, critiquing Apple's shift from innovation to rent-seeking.

- The product managers are the heroes now. I want to see a product manager getting a four-year, $1 billion package. - Jordi Hays, emphasizing the importance of user experience in the AI era.

🍎 Apple Tax and the Ninth Circuit Ruling

- The Ninth Circuit ruled against Apple's practice of charging 30% fees for developers routing customers to external payment pages.

- John Coogan explains how Apple attempted to restructure the fees as 27% plus additional charges, effectively maintaining the same rate.

- The ruling mandates Apple to align fees with actual costs, such as facilitating links and payment processing.

- Jordi Hays humorously highlights the absurdity of Apple's pricey links, questioning the proportionality of fees to revenue.

💼 OpenAI's Vesting Cliff Policy Change

- OpenAI reduced its equity vesting cliff for new employees from 12 months to six months, following similar moves by competitors like XAI.

- John Coogan notes this change aims to attract top-tier talent in the competitive AI industry, where pay packages can exceed $100 million.

- The hosts discuss how restrictive exit agreements and clawback policies previously tarnished OpenAI's employer brand.

🤖 Anthropic's Massive TPU Order

- Anthropic placed a $21 billion order for TPUs to train large AI models, signaling the scale of AI infrastructure investments.

- John Coogan and Jordi Hays speculate on the implications of such orders, including the potential for private markets to fund massive projects without going public.

- The hosts humorously explore futuristic ideas like space and volcano data centers to address cooling and regulatory challenges.

📈 Apple's Services Narrative and Financial Evolution

- John Coogan outlines Apple's pivot from hardware sales to a services-driven growth narrative, emphasizing the App Store's economic ecosystem.

- The shift from innovation to rent-seeking is critiqued, with Ben Thompson describing it as corrosive to Apple's original ethos.

- Apple's price-to-earnings ratio skyrocketed from 10x in 2011 to 37x today, driven by the stickiness of its services monopoly.

🛠️ The Era of Productization in AI

- The hosts argue that user experience and productization are now more critical than cutting-edge AI models.

- Jordi Hays envisions product managers as the new heroes, receiving billion-dollar compensation packages for their contributions.

- John Coogan contrasts the roles of researchers and designers, emphasizing the importance of creating accessible, polished products over pure scientific experimentation.