How to Predict the Future With Kevin Kelly - Ep. 57

How to Predict the Future With Kevin Kelly - Ep. 57

April 23, 2025 53 min
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🤖 AI Summary

Overview

This episode features a deep conversation with Kevin Kelly, exploring his insights on technology, creativity, and the future. Topics range from the evolution of AI and VR to the influence of Annie Dillard on his writing, and the emotional connections humans may form with AI.

Notable Quotes

- You could say VR is still waiting for its LLM moment.Kevin Kelly, on the slow adoption of virtual reality.

- Don't aim to be the best, aim to be the only.Kevin Kelly, on carving a unique path in life and work.

- The joy of creating it was better than reading it.Kevin Kelly, on using AI for personal creative projects.

📚 The Influence of Annie Dillard

- Kevin Kelly and Dan Shipper share a mutual admiration for Annie Dillard, particularly her book Pilgrim at Tinker Creek. Kelly describes her writing as a blend of cosmic poetic ecstasy and grounded scientific trivia.

- Dillard’s ability to juxtapose beauty and harshness inspires Kelly’s own creative process. He recounts how her work motivated him to pursue writing, despite his reluctance.

- Kelly once sent Dillard a book of his haikus and sketches, receiving a rare and cherished reply.

🌐 From Pioneers to Builders in Technology

- Kelly reflects on the transition from the chaotic, lawless pioneer phase of new technologies to the structured builder phase. He compares this to his experiences at Burning Man, where initial freedom gave way to necessary organization.

- He emphasizes the importance of maintaining new frontiers for innovation while balancing the stability of established systems.

- Personally, Kelly enjoys visiting frontiers—whether in remote parts of Asia or emerging tech landscapes—but prefers not to stay there permanently.

🧠 AI, Intelligence, and Historical Parallels

- Kelly likens our current understanding of AI to the early days of electricity, where even brilliant minds like Isaac Newton misunderstood its nature. He suggests intelligence may be a compound of cognitive elements we’ve yet to identify.

- He predicts AI will lead to the creation of diverse, non-human forms of intelligence, filling out a vast possibility space of thinking.

- Dan Shipper highlights the emotional attachment people may develop with AI, especially as systems like ChatGPT gain memory and personalization features.

🎨 Creativity and AI as a Tool

- Kelly uses AI for creative experiments, such as imagining historical figures like Leonardo da Vinci and Martin Luther collaborating on a fictional city. He describes this as world-building for an audience of one, emphasizing the joy of creation over sharing the output.

- He views AI as a powerful tool for overcoming creative inertia, particularly for reluctant writers like himself. AI helps him organize thoughts and illuminate areas of ignorance.

- Kelly predicts a future where generative AI becomes a form of personal entertainment, akin to journaling or painting, with most creations intended for the creator alone.

📈 Lessons from Past Tech Predictions

- Kelly reflects on his misjudgments, such as overestimating the speed of VR adoption and underestimating the potential of eBay and Bitcoin.

- He attributes VR’s slow progress to biological and hardware challenges and suggests robotics may face similar delays.

- On AI, he notes its 50-year overnight success, with breakthroughs like LLMs emerging unexpectedly from unrelated fields like language translation.

AI-generated content may not be accurate or complete and should not be relied upon as a sole source of truth.

📋 Episode Description

Kevin Kelly has spent more time thinking about the future than almost anyone else.


From VR in the 1980s to the blockchain in the 2000s—and now generative AI—Kevin has spent a lifetime journeying to the frontiers of technology, only to return with rich stories about what’s next.


Today, as Wired's senior maverick, his project for 2025 is to outline what the next century looks like in a world shaped by new technologies like AI and genetic engineering. 


He’s a personal hero of mine—not to mention a fellow Annie Dillard fan—and it was a privilege to have him on the show. We get into:

  • How you can predict the future. According to Kevin, the draw of new frontiers—from the first edition of Burning Man and remote corners of Asia, to the early days of the internet and AI—isn’t staying at the edge forever; it's returning with a story to tell.

  • Why history is so important to help you understand the future To stay grounded while exploring what’s new, Kevin balances the thrill of the future with the wisdom of the past. He pairs AI research with reading about history, and playing with an AI tool by retreating to his workshop to make something with his hands.

  • From 1,000 true fans to an audience of one. Rather than creating for an audience, Kevin has been using LLMs to explore his own imagination. After realizing that da Vinci, Martin Luther, and Columbus were alive at the same time, he asked ChatGPT to imagine them snowed in at a hotel together, and the prompt spiraled into an epic saga, co-written with AI. But he has no plans to publish it because the joy was in creating something just for himself.

  • What the history of electricity can teach us about AI. Kevin draws a parallel between AI and the early days of electricity. We could produce electric sparks long before we understood the forces that created them, and now we’re building intelligent machines without really understanding what intelligence is.

  • Why Kevin sees intelligence as a mosaic—not a monolith. Kevin believes intelligence isn’t a single force, but a compound of many cognitive elements. He draws from Marvin Minsky’s “society of mind”—the theory that the mind is made up of smaller agents working together—and sees echoes of this in the Mixture of Experts architecture used in some models today.

  • Your competitive advantage is being yourself. Don’t aim to be the best—aim to be the only. Kevin realized that the stories no one else at Wired wanted to write were often the ones he was suited for, and trusting that instinct led to some of his best work.

This is a must-watch for anyone who wants to make sense of AI through the lens of history, learn how to spot the future before it arrives, or grew up reading Wired.


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