The "stuck economy," tariffs and Wall Street

Overview

This episode explores the challenges facing the U.S. economy, including a potential government shutdown, a stagnant labor market, and the impact of tariffs on housing costs. It also examines how AI is reshaping e-commerce and highlights innovative approaches to inclusivity in the barbering industry.

Notable Quotes

- Job growth is really a combination of both hiring and firing. In a low hire environment, if employers give up and start firing people, we could see a rapid deterioration in the labor market. – Kimberly Adams, on the precarious state of the labor market.

- If it's possible for a barber to offer this level of professionalism and care for my child, what else is possible? – Henry Tribes Amolaja, on the transformative impact of sensory-friendly haircuts.

- AI can summarize reviews and narrow down results to a few key options with minimal instructions. So why not let the bot handle the purchase too? – Megan McCarty Carino, on the growing role of chatbots in e-commerce.

🛑 Government Shutdown and Labor Market Uncertainty

- Kristen Schwab and Martha Gimbel discuss how a looming government shutdown could halt the release of critical labor market data, leaving policymakers and economists flying blind.

- The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reveals a slowdown in hiring, reminiscent of weaker labor markets in 2010-2011.

- Without Bureau of Labor Statistics data, private sector metrics may fill gaps but are often noisy and unreliable, especially during economic uncertainty.

📉 Bond Market Signals and Economic Concerns

- Justin Ho explains how bond markets are reacting to the shutdown threat, with yields on Treasury notes falling as investors seek safer assets.

- Inflation concerns persist, with durable goods orders and consumer spending exceeding expectations, keeping long-term bond yields higher than short-term ones.

- Experts like Randy Vogel suggest investors are locking in yields now, anticipating future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

🏠 Tariffs and Housing Market Impact

- New tariffs on Canadian lumber and timber, alongside existing taxes, are expected to raise housing costs.

- Samantha Fields highlights how oversupply of Canadian lumber temporarily lowered prices, but this wall of wood is depleting, likely driving prices back up.

- Builders and consumers will ultimately bear the cost, further straining affordability in an already stagnant housing market.

🤖 AI and the Future of E-Commerce

- OpenAI introduces instant checkout features for Etsy and Shopify merchants, signaling a shift toward agentic commerce.

- Megan McCarty Carino notes that consumers increasingly trust chatbot recommendations over traditional search engines, with AI simplifying product selection and purchase processes.

- Challenges remain, including retailers' reluctance to share valuable consumer data and the need for AI-driven commerce to balance profitability with user experience.

✂️ Inclusivity in Barbering

- Henry Tribes Amolaja shares his journey to becoming a barber and his innovative approach to sensory-friendly haircuts for neurodivergent individuals.

- His process includes consultations and tailored plans to ensure a positive experience, emphasizing patience, adaptability, and compassion.

- Families of neurodivergent children find hope and trust in his services, showcasing how inclusivity can transform industries and lives.