More labor market blues

More labor market blues

November 11, 2025 25 min
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🤖 AI Summary

Overview

This episode delves into the challenges facing the labor market, including hiring struggles for small businesses, the implications of 50-year mortgages, and the slowing growth of real wages. It also explores the booming condiment market and the rise of open-caption screenings in theaters.

Notable Quotes

- You're really left with not much advantage and you become really a renter with a mortgage. - Edward Pinto, on the risks of 50-year mortgages.

- 90% of Gen Z will go to a restaurant just for a new sauce. - Dina Shanker, on the cultural obsession with condiments.

- Everyone I know watches with captions. - Amelia Van Howe, on the growing trend of open-captioned content.

🛠️ Labor Market Struggles

- The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index shows a slight decline, with 32% of small business owners unable to fill open positions and 27% citing labor quality as their top issue.

- Kristen Schwab highlights that small businesses face tougher hiring challenges due to competition with larger firms offering better pay and benefits.

- Industries like construction, transportation, and manufacturing are particularly affected, especially those reliant on immigrant labor.

- Data from ADP, Indeed, and regional Federal Reserve banks indicate weakening labor market trends, including slower job growth and stagnant wages.

🏠 The Debate Over 50-Year Mortgages

- President Trump’s proposal for 50-year mortgages sparks debate. While monthly payments would be slightly lower, borrowers face higher interest rates and slower equity growth.

- David Reese notes that extending mortgage terms to 50 years could leave homeowners paying off loans into their 90s, a scenario many find unappealing.

- Experts like Edward Pinto warn that such mortgages could inflate housing prices and leave homeowners vulnerable to market risks.

📉 Slowing Wage Growth

- Real income growth is stuck at 2% annually, the lowest in a decade, according to JPMorgan Chase Institute data.

- Wage growth is slowing most for workers in their mid-to-late 20s and those in low-paying jobs, reversing trends seen post-pandemic.

- Tariffs and inflation are putting pressure on small businesses, making it harder for them to raise wages or hire new staff. Aaron Brown, a small business owner, shares his struggles with rising costs and stagnant sales.

🍯 The Rise of Condiment Culture

- The condiment market has grown to $12 billion, driven by adventurous eating habits, dietary restrictions, and increased home cooking.

- Viral hits like Fly By Jing’s chili crisp ketchup exemplify the role of social media in driving sales.

- Legacy brands like Kraft Heinz are innovating with customizable condiment machines, using consumer data to develop new products.

🎥 Open Captions in Theaters

- Open-caption screenings are gaining popularity, driven by accessibility needs and the influence of streaming platforms.

- Walter Chao explains how changes in audio standards during the streaming era made captions essential for many viewers.

- Theaters like AMC and Regal are expanding open-caption offerings, while smaller venues dedicate entire days to these screenings.

- The trend reflects broader shifts in viewing habits, with younger audiences embracing captions as a standard feature.

AI-generated content may not be accurate or complete and should not be relied upon as a sole source of truth.

📋 Episode Description

Business owners aren’t too optimistic about the labor market, according to an NFIB survey. About a third are struggling to fill an open position, and around a quarter said labor quality was their most pressing issue. In this episode, we scrape together a picture of today’s labor market, sans government data. Plus: Cities issue bonds at a record pace, we explain the consequences of Trump’s proposal to back 50-year mortgages and one report shows real wage growth has slowed to 2%.


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