On track for a layoffs record

Overview

This episode explores the economic implications of rising layoffs, the role of AI in workforce reductions, and unconventional recession indicators. It also delves into the booming market for industrial outdoor storage and the U.S. government's strategic investments in lithium mining. The episode concludes with a conversation with Jenny Han, creator of The Summer I Turned Pretty, about her creative journey and the business of storytelling.

Notable Quotes

- Any time a role becomes open, they're asking themselves, do we really need this role? Is it a role that can be done with AI? - Aaron Tarrazas, on how AI is reshaping hiring decisions.

- I'm a creator, I'm a storyteller, so I do want to control everything. Obviously, you can't. That's something I work on in therapy. - Jenny Han, on balancing creative control and collaboration.

- Rents for industrial outdoor storage spaces have gone up 123% in the last five years. - Patrick Sisson, on the skyrocketing demand for logistics-related real estate.

📉 Layoffs and the Labor Market

- Layoffs in 2025 are on track to surpass any year since 2020, driven by federal cuts, nonprofit downsizing, and AI experimentation.

- Henry Epp highlighted layoffs in leisure, hospitality, and tech sectors, with companies testing AI to replace roles.

- Despite the spike in layoffs earlier this year, the pace of new announcements has slowed recently, though the labor market remains precarious.

📊 Recession Indicators Beyond the Obvious

- Caroline Hoxby noted that higher education enrollment often rises during recessions due to lower opportunity costs.

- Auto loan delinquencies are trending upward, signaling financial strain for many households, according to Ricard Bendebo.

- Applications to selective schools, like the University of Michigan's law school, have surged, potentially reflecting recession fears.

🏗️ The Rise of Industrial Outdoor Storage (IOS)

- Patrick Sisson explained the growing investment in IOS, spaces used for parking trucks, storing trailers, and staging construction materials.

- Demand for IOS surged during the pandemic due to supply chain disruptions and has been further fueled by AI-related data center construction.

- Institutional investors like Blackstone and JP Morgan have poured $4.7 billion into IOS over the past five years, with rents increasing dramatically.

🔋 U.S. Lithium Mining and Policy Contradictions

- The U.S. government has taken a 5% stake in Lithium Americas to secure domestic lithium supply for EV batteries.

- However, recent policy changes, such as ending EV tax incentives, could dampen domestic demand for lithium, creating a disconnect between production and consumption.

- Experts like Chris Berry likened the U.S. strategy to China's approach of subsidizing and controlling critical mineral supply chains.

🎬 Jenny Han: From Novelist to Showrunner

- Jenny Han discussed her transition from librarian and author to showrunner of The Summer I Turned Pretty.

- She emphasized the importance of understanding her audience, a skill honed during her time as a school librarian.

- Han shared insights on creative control, her meticulous approach to music licensing, and her collaboration with artists like Taylor Swift.