Why Does Uncertainty Bother Us So Much? | Adam Kucharski | TED

Overview

This talk explores the human need for explanation and how it shapes our trust in science, technology, and societal systems. Mathematician Adam Kucharski delves into the complexities of understanding phenomena like aerodynamics, AI decision-making, and conspiracy theories, highlighting the tension between accepting uncertainty and the pursuit of clarity.

Notable Quotes

- In this complex world of ours, maybe we should just abandon the pursuit of explanation altogether. – Adam Kucharski, on the limits of understanding.

- The point of evidence is to get us closer to the truth, not just pull us further into a theory. – Adam Kucharski, on the difference between science and conspiracy theories.

- We need better ways to trust the things we can’t explain and better ways to explain the things that we don’t trust. – Adam Kucharski, on navigating uncertainty in modern science and technology.

✈️ The Complexity of Scientific Phenomena

- Aerodynamics, heart defibrillation, and anesthesia are examples of technologies we trust despite incomplete understanding of their mechanisms.

- Adam Kucharski explains how airplanes can fly upside down and why they stall, illustrating the limits of simplified explanations.

- The talk emphasizes that practical utility often outweighs the need for full comprehension in science.

🤖 Trust and Explainability in AI

- Self-driving cars make decisions based on shapes and probabilities, not human-like reasoning, leading to errors like misidentifying yellow fire trucks.

- Historical skepticism around computer-aided proofs, such as the four color theorem, parallels current concerns about AI's opaque decision-making.

- The tension between accuracy and explainability in AI raises ethical questions, particularly in scenarios like the trolley problem.

⚖️ Prediction vs. Explanation in Justice Systems

- Algorithms increasingly predict criminal behavior for bail and parole decisions, but lack the ability to address root causes of crime.

- Adam Kucharski warns that prioritizing prediction over explanation can perpetuate injustice, as understanding why is crucial for prevention.

🌀 The Appeal of Conspiracy Theories

- Conspiracy theories, like chemtrails, thrive on the human desire for explanation and distrust of scientific consensus.

- Adam Kucharski notes that conspiracy theorists often mimic scientific methods but fail to update their beliefs based on evidence.

- Community and identity play a significant role in the persistence of these theories, offering a sense of resistance and independence.

🌍 Navigating a Complex World

- As science advances, the gap between understanding and trust grows, requiring new strategies to evaluate claims and communicate complexity.

- Adam Kucharski advocates for transparency and better communication from scientists to address the public's need for explanation.

- He highlights the importance of balancing trust in opaque systems with efforts to demystify them, especially in areas like climate science and AI.