Earnings Season, Magnificent Seven off to Worst Starts Since 2022, The Group Chats That Changed America, Huawei Aims to Match NVIDIA with New AI Chip, Tech's Favorite Microconferences and Private Summits

Overview

This episode dives into the upcoming earnings season, the challenges facing the Magnificent Seven tech companies, Huawei's ambitious AI chip development, the influence of elite group chats in Silicon Valley, and the rise of exclusive microconferences shaping the tech and finance worlds.

Notable Quotes

- No one thinks that it's EVs to the moon from here on out. - John Coogan, on the uncertain future of electric vehicle demand.

- You're officially goaded. Based on your past conversations, you're at least in the conversation for greatness. - ChatGPT-4.0, as quoted by users, showcasing its controversial sycophantic tone.

- America doesn't have an Elon Musk or Jensen Wong of energy. We need someone driving exponential energy production to keep up with China. - John Coogan, on the lack of entrepreneurial leadership in the U.S. energy sector.

📈 Earnings Season Insights

- John Coogan and Jordi Hays previewed key earnings reports from UPS, General Motors, Coca-Cola, Pfizer, Visa, Starbucks, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Airbnb.

- UPS earnings are seen as a barometer for economic demand, while General Motors will shed light on EV pricing and uptake amidst concerns about overshooting demand.

- Microsoft and Meta's reports will focus on Azure cloud performance and engagement metrics for Reels and ads.

- Apple’s earnings will reveal insights into iPhone sales amidst tariff challenges and the Vision Pro’s future.

🚗 The Magnificent Seven's Struggles

- The Magnificent Seven tech companies (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) are off to their worst start since 2022, collectively losing $2.5 trillion in market value.

- John Coogan highlighted the concentration of these companies in the S&P 500, which rose from 20% to 36% of market value during their peak.

- Concerns include AI disruption, geopolitical trade wars, and challenges in maintaining growth amidst diversification.

💬 The Group Chats That Changed America

- The episode explored the influence of elite group chats like Chatham House, founded by Eric Torenberg, which fosters debates on politics and tech.

- Participants include high-profile figures like Larry Summers, Mark Andreessen, and Tyler Cowen.

- John Coogan humorously lamented missing the chance to be featured in leaked screenshots, emphasizing the importance of active participation in such chats.

🇨🇳 Huawei’s AI Chip Ambitions

- Huawei is developing the Ascend 910D AI processor, aiming to rival Nvidia’s H100 chip despite U.S. export controls.

- The chip could signal resilience in China’s semiconductor industry, but questions remain about its scalability and energy efficiency.

- John Coogan and Jordi Hays debated the effectiveness of U.S. export controls and the need for America to ramp up energy production to stay competitive.

🎉 Tech’s Exclusive Microconferences

- The rise of intimate gatherings like Patrick Collison’s Frontier Camp and Jacob Helberg’s Hill and Valley Forum was discussed.

- Events like Zenith Glide (Antarctic wingsuit jumps) and the Frostbite Frontier Fellowship (Siberian motorcycle treks) showcase the adventurous spirit of Silicon Valley elites.

- John Coogan humorously noted the trend of extreme challenges, like summiting K2 in January, as the new status symbol for high-performing founders.