Oscars 2026: Who Will Win, and Who Should Win?

Overview

This episode dives into the 2026 Oscars, exploring standout performances, potential winners, and the state of Hollywood. Manohla Dargis, The New York Times' chief film critic, shares her insights on the year's most compelling films and performances, highlighting both the frontrunners and her personal favorites.

Notable Quotes

- The Oscars are terrible unless they're right, which means unless they pick my movies. – Manohla Dargis, on her love-hate relationship with the Oscars.

- Think of the ending of Carrie when the hand pops out of the grave. That is American cinema. It's back, baby. – Manohla Dargis, on the resilience of the film industry.

- If there's snot running down your face, you probably will get an Oscar. – Manohla Dargis, on the Academy's love for big, emotional performances.

🎭 Best Actress Performances

- Jesse Buckley in Hamnet:

- Likely to win for her portrayal of Agnes, Shakespeare's wife.

- A role that spans love, motherhood, tragedy, and resilience, with a harrowing birth scene and raw grief.

- Dargis notes Buckley's ability to navigate every emotional register with authenticity.

- Renata Reinsve in Sentimental Value:

- A quieter, more nuanced performance as a theater actress navigating a fraught relationship with her filmmaker father.

- Praised for her emotional transparency and subtlety, particularly in a scene where she listens to another actress discuss a role she turned down.

🎬 Best Actor Performances

- Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme:

- Plays a spiky, ambitious table tennis champion chasing the American Dream.

- Balances abrasiveness with charm in a bold, exuberant performance.

- Michael B. Jordan in Sinners:

- Portrays twin brothers, Smoke and Stack, in a horror film with themes of cultural exploitation.

- Seamlessly differentiates the two characters while delivering emotional depth, particularly in a tender reunion scene.

- Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon:

- Plays lyricist Lorenz Hart in a tragic yet restrained performance.

- Captures Hart's wit, pride, and desperation, with Dargis praising his ability to convey complex emotions through subtle facial expressions.

🏆 Best Picture Contenders

- One Battle After Another:

- A Paul Thomas Anderson film about revolutionaries, blending tragedy and comedy.

- Features Leonardo DiCaprio as a burnout father navigating underground resistance.

- Resonates with contemporary conflicts, offering both urgency and humor.

- Sinners:

- Directed by Ryan Coogler, this ambitious film explores history, culture, and identity through a supernatural lens.

- A standout scene collapses time and space, showcasing the cultural arc from Africa to modern America.

- Dargis calls it a masterpiece that speaks to the American experience.

🌍 Hidden Gem: The Secret Agent

- A Brazilian film set during the 1977 military dictatorship.

- Follows a former professor navigating political oppression with moments of burlesque comedy and profound emotional depth.

- Dargis highlights its unpredictability and moving portrayal of survival under oppression.