Sarah Paine – How Russia sabotaged China's rise

Overview

This episode delves into the complex historical relationship between Russia and China, focusing on how Russia, particularly under Stalin, systematically undermined China's rise over the past century. Military historian Sarah Paine explores the geopolitical strategies, ideological conflicts, and historical events that shaped the Sino-Russian dynamic, offering insights into the broader implications for global power structures.

Notable Quotes

- If you play this game, you're surrounding yourself with failing states because you're either busy destabilizing them or ingesting them. – Sarah Paine, on the destructive nature of Russia and China's imperial strategies.

- The Chinese communists probably traded Manchuria's industry for all the conventional aid they got. – Sarah Paine, on the pragmatic but costly decisions during China's civil war.

- I am more afraid of our own blunders than of the enemy's devices. – Sarah Paine, quoting Pericles to emphasize the importance of strategic foresight in geopolitics.

🌏 The Russo-Chinese Relationship: Historical Context

- Russia and China discovered each other relatively late in their histories, with episodic interactions until the mid-19th century.

- Both nations followed the rules of continental empires, avoiding two-front wars and destabilizing neighbors to prevent the rise of great power rivals.

- Russia repeatedly undermined China's sovereignty, exploiting internal turmoil during events like the Opium Wars and the Sino-Japanese War.

- Treaties such as the Treaty of Aigun (1858) and Treaty of Peking (1860) forced China to cede vast territories to Russia.

⚔️ Stalin's Role in Derailing China's Rise

- Stalin's strategic maneuvers during the Chinese Civil War ensured that China remained weak and divided.

- He supported both the Chinese Nationalists and Communists at different times, ensuring prolonged conflict and instability.

- Stalin's propaganda efforts fueled anti-Japanese and anti-Western sentiment in China, diverting attention from Russia's own territorial ambitions.

- The Korean War saw Stalin using China as a proxy to weaken the U.S. and delay China's development, with devastating human costs for the Chinese.

🛡️ The Decline of Russian Power and China's Rise

- After Stalin's death, Mao Zedong grew increasingly aware of Russia's attempts to keep China weak. This led to the Sino-Soviet split, exacerbated by ideological and geopolitical differences.

- China's rise was fueled by internal reforms under Deng Xiaoping, which prioritized economic growth over strict communist principles.

- Meanwhile, Russia's decline was marked by economic stagnation, overextension, and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

🏰 Russian Imperialism and Its Legacy

- Russia's historical identity is deeply tied to territorial expansion and domination over its neighbors.

- The Soviet Union's imperial practices, including ethnic cleansing, forced labor, and economic exploitation, left a legacy of resentment in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

- The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 marked the end of Russia's imperial ambitions, leaving it a diminished state with significant internal challenges.

🔥 The Future of Sino-Russian Relations

- Despite their current bromance, China and Russia's relationship is fraught with tension due to their shared border and competing ambitions.

- China, with its vastly superior population and economy, holds the upper hand, while Russia's reliance on resource exports makes it vulnerable.

- The Belt and Road Initiative is already eroding Russia's influence in Central Asia, and China's growing need for resources like water from Siberia could strain relations further.

- The episode concludes with a warning: the West must manage its alliances wisely to avoid pushing these two powers into a closer alignment, which could have catastrophic global consequences.